Afghanistan’s decision to build a major dam on the Kunar River has placed Pakistan on high alert, signaling a potential water crisis and geopolitical showdown. The Taliban regime, under new directives, is prioritizing the rapid construction of this dam, aiming to harness its hydropower potential and, critically, to leverage water control as a political tool against Pakistan.
This strategic move follows recent Pakistani military actions in Afghanistan and clashes along the shared border, indicating a retaliatory intent. With India’s water-related agreements with Pakistan already under strain, Afghanistan’s dam project presents a dual threat to Pakistan’s water security.
The Kunar River is a vital artery for Pakistan, feeding into the Indus River system that irrigates vast agricultural lands. The proposed dam, designed to generate 1,000 megawatts of electricity, is projected to reduce the river’s flow into Pakistan by up to 30%. This reduction poses a grave threat to Pakistan’s agricultural sector, potentially rendering hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland unproductive and impacting food security in crucial provinces like Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Beyond agriculture, the reduced flow will significantly impact Pakistan’s hydropower capacity, leading to power shortages for millions. The humanitarian implications are substantial, with potential crises in both food and drinking water supplies.
Afghanistan’s leadership has emphasized self-reliance in the dam’s construction, commissioning only local companies. This internal focus highlights the government’s determination to control its water resources independently. The ability of Afghanistan to divert or withhold water from the Kunar River poses a unique challenge for Pakistan, as the river’s trajectory through Afghanistan means Kabul holds the ultimate control over its return flow. Unlike other water-sharing arrangements, Afghanistan is not legally obligated to Pakistan regarding the Kunar River’s water, leaving Pakistan with few diplomatic or legal avenues to counter this move.