Following a potential deadline from US President Donald Trump, Russia may face severe sanctions. Concerns arise over potential false flag operations and attacks on Russia’s oil-carrying shadow fleet, leading to heightened tensions. This context sees Russia preparing for a possible direct conflict with NATO, causing nuclear anxieties across Europe. Russia’s intensified testing of a super missile further fuels these fears, alongside putting allied nations on high alert.
Diplomatic efforts, including ceasefire negotiations, have proven unsuccessful. Trump’s attempts to apply strategic pressure on Putin have also failed, signaling that the Russian president is unlikely to concede to a ceasefire. Without a ceasefire, relations between the US and Europe risk deterioration. In response, Russia may require its most powerful weaponry for defense.
Putin has authorized the testing of a super cruise missile. Amidst its extensive nuclear arsenal, Russia is deploying a missile difficult to intercept. This has led to the reopening of the Novaya Zemlya testing site, after 33 years. This site is historically used for significant nuclear tests, and Putin has ordered the super cruise missile testing here.
The Burevestnik is Russia’s super cruise missile, also known as the world’s first intercontinental cruise missile. It operates on nuclear power, unlike conventional missiles that use liquid or solid fuel. The missile houses a nuclear reactor and is designed to fly continuously for approximately 20 years. Its ability to change course during flight, coupled with its low-altitude flight capabilities, contributes to its precision and invulnerability. It is capable of carrying out nuclear strikes, and NATO has designated it with the code name SSC-X-9 Skyfall.
Referred to as the “Flying Chernobyl”, the missile marks a significant technological advancement, as nuclear reactors have only previously been employed in submarines and aircraft carriers. Its development has been complex, posing challenges to Russia.
Belarus as a Staging Ground: Several tests of the missile were conducted up until 2019. In one test, the missile covered approximately 36 kilometers in two minutes before crashing into the Barents Sea. During the recovery operation, an explosion occurred, resulting in the deaths of seven Russian nuclear scientists. Putin stated in 2023 that the Burevestnik missile was combat-ready, with deployment planned for 2025.
Putin highlighted the readiness of the missile at the Valdai Summit, indicating the final test stages. Simultaneously, Belarus, a Russian ally, is preparing for potential conflict. Russian forces have arrived in Belarus for the Zapad 2025 military exercise, providing cover for military deployments along the Ukrainian border.
Belarus has been transformed into a potential battlefield. The Zapad 2025 exercise is taking place near the Ukrainian border. Military deployments along the Ukrainian border are being justified by this exercise. Belarus has increased the number of military vehicles and deployed new MLRS brigades. Additionally, drone operators from air assault units have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. This positioning suggests Putin might open a front against NATO and Ukraine from Belarus if required.
Russian Drones near Romanian Border: The risk of direct conflict with NATO is increasing as Russian explosive drones are reaching neighboring countries. Drones were observed near the Romanian border on August 6. The drones were launched in the vicinity of Odesa, Ukraine, close to the Romanian border. Romanian radar detected the drones, leading to the deployment of F-16 aircraft to patrol the border. Although no drones crashed on Romanian territory, previous incidents involved Russian drones entering Lithuania. A drone crashed at a military training ground on July 28, and another was reported on July 10, leading Lithuania to condemn these incidents as violations of NATO airspace. Lithuania is urging NATO to consider potential responses, and its Ministry of Defence is advocating for the reinforcement of its defense systems.
Poland Enhances Tank Deployments Near Kaliningrad. NATO is intensifying its military presence in response. Poland has increased tank deployments near Russia’s Kaliningrad base. K2 Black Panther tanks from South Korea have been stationed there. Kaliningrad houses a Russian nuclear force base, with concerns that Russia could initiate attacks from Kaliningrad or Arctic bases. NATO is thus accelerating its mission to enhance its strength in the Arctic region, which includes an alliance between the US, Canada, and Finland. These nations have established a deal with four shipbuilding companies. The ICE Pact agreement is in place to initiate shipbuilding.
Future plans include developing advanced ASC (Arctic Security Cutter) ships to rival Russia in the Arctic. This is part of NATO’s effort to increase its Arctic dominance, as Russia currently holds a stronger position with over 50 bases in the region. Although it will take years for NATO to match Russia’s presence, NATO is focused on deploying its forces near Russian borders to put pressure on Russia.