Amidst escalating tensions following a recent conflict with Israel, Iran suggests the United States is unlikely to launch a further military strike due to a combination of factors including economic vulnerability and a perceived lack of military capability. The US continues to pressure Iran over its nuclear program, while Iran insists on continuing its uranium enrichment activities.
Ali Saeedi, a senior figure within the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, articulated this perspective, citing the high risks associated with rising oil prices and a potential military defeat. He stated, “The enemy does not have the capacity to attack again and is afraid of Iran’s strength. Americans are also afraid of the possibility of $150 per barrel oil and cannot tolerate such a situation.” He emphasized the economic impact of any potential conflict.
Larijani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, suggested openness to dialogue with the United States, under the condition that such talks genuinely aim to achieve a resolution. The current situation highlights the complex interplay of nuclear ambitions, geopolitical maneuvering, and economic factors in the region.
A potential military conflict could trigger a global oil crisis. Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil transit, carrying approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply. Such a closure could cause a surge in oil prices worldwide.
Larijani further explained that if the US acknowledges its inability to defeat Iran through military means and seeks negotiation, Iran would respond positively. However, if talks are perceived as a tactic to prepare for future hostilities, they would be unproductive.
Furthermore, France, the UK, and Germany have issued warnings, indicating that the re-imposition of UN sanctions is possible if Iran does not resume nuclear negotiations and demonstrate tangible progress by the end of August. Previous attempts at negotiation were unsuccessful after Israel initiated military action in June. The US, during the Trump administration, bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, which was declared by Trump to have ended the nuclear program. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes and denies any intention of developing nuclear weapons.