NDA Gears Up for Bihar Elections: Seat Allocation, Caste Equations, and Nitish Kumar’s Health

With the Bihar Assembly elections approaching, the NDA is deep in preparations, specifically focusing on seat distribution. Reports indicate that the allocation strategy will mirror the Lok Sabha elections’ model, with discussions underway between Patna and Delhi. In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP fought on 17 seats, JDU on 16, LJP on 5, and HAM and Rashtriya Lok Morcha on one each. The health of Nitish Kumar is also considered as part of the electoral strategy. Seat allocation is planned to be finalized at the last moment to avoid any complications. Moreover, seats where the NDA has lost in the last two consecutive elections could be swapped to increase the chances of winning. The JDU might get more seats than the BJP. According to sources, the JDU could contest 102-103 seats out of 243, while the BJP could contest 101-102. The remaining approximately 40 seats will be allocated to parties like the Lok Janshakti Party, Hindustan Awam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha. The LJP, with five MPs, could receive around 25-28 seats. The HAM could get 6-7 seats, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha, 4-5 seats. The seat distribution will also keep caste equations in mind. If a district has five assembly seats, it will be ensured that candidates from all castes get representation. The NDA is strategizing seat by seat to achieve victory, along with identifying potential rebels from both NDA and opposition. The NDA believes that the opposition’s focus on Nitish Kumar’s health will backfire and help the NDA gain sympathy. The BJP and JDU have contested elections together before. In the 2010 assembly elections, JDU contested on 141 seats and BJP on 102. Before the 2015 elections, Nitish Kumar had left the NDA. In the 2020 elections, Nitish Kumar had once again joined hands with the BJP, with JDU contesting 115 seats and BJP 110.