With the Bihar assembly elections approaching, political maneuvering is in full swing. Parties are engaged in discussions ranging from caste dynamics to potential alliances. Seat-sharing arrangements are a key focus. Amidst these developments, there’s speculation regarding the possibility of Owaisi’s AIMIM, which won 5 seats in the 2020 elections, joining the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance).
AIMIM leaders expressed their openness to partnering with the Mahagathbandhan to prevent the BJP and its allies from regaining power. Akhtarul Imam, the AIMIM state president, took the initiative in this regard. However, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav stated that no discussions had taken place. Subsequently, Owaisi himself revealed to the media that his party had proposed an alliance, but a response was still awaited.
Owaisi pointed out that a similar attempt was made in 2020 but was unsuccessful. His party then won five seats. On the following day, Akhtarul Imam accused the RJD of poaching their MLAs, despite their support in the assembly.
He emphasized their goal of keeping the NDA out of power and said that the alliance was offered proactively. He also hinted at exploring possibilities with a Third Front, indicating ongoing communication with various parties.
The concept of a Third Front has fueled intense speculation. It’s believed AIMIM might repeat its 2020 strategy by forming a new alliance with smaller parties. In the 2020 election, Owaisi’s party formed the Grand Democratic Secular Front, which included Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Mayawati’s BSP, Devendra Prasad Yadav’s SJD(D), Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, and Sanjay Singh Chauhan’s Janvadi Party (Socialist).
Reports suggest that Akhtarul Imam is in talks with smaller parties. If AIMIM forms a Third Front, the RJD and Congress could face the most significant losses.
RJD’s electoral base in Bihar heavily relies on the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation. Owaisi’s actions could directly affect the RJD-Congress alliance in Muslim-dominated seats. Moreover, the participation of BSP might threaten the RJD in seats where Dalit and Muslim votes are crucial. In 2020, BSP secured one seat, with Mohammad Zama Khan winning from Chainpur.
With AIMIM’s 5 seats, a total of 6 seats directly slipped from RJD’s grasp. Though the MLAs later switched parties, the Ramgarh seat in Bihar saw a close contest. Current RJD MP Sudhakar Singh won by a narrow margin of 189 votes against BSP candidate Ambika Singh. Upendra Kushwaha is now aligned with the NDA, and Rajbhar is also with the NDA.
It’s evident that BSP and AIMIM are planning to contest all seats independently. If they form an alliance again, Congress’s Dalit outreach and the RJD-Congress’s Muslim vote bank could be impacted. Akash Anand, Mayawati’s nephew, is also actively campaigning for BSP in Bihar.
Owaisi plans to go beyond Muslim politics by fielding Hindu candidates. He has announced Rana Ranjit Singh as a candidate from the Dhaka seat. If AIMIM and RJD don’t align, Tejashwi Yadav might face setbacks in many seats. Some believe that Muslims may be hesitant to take the same risk again, considering the narrow margin by which RJD missed forming the government in the previous election.
Tejashwi Yadav is vocal on the Waqf issue, advocating for the Muslim community. He is seen as a prominent figure in the opposition’s efforts to defeat the NDA. There is a possibility that Muslim voters might reconsider their support, and the situation remains uncertain.