With the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar, the political atmosphere is heating up. The NDA, under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, is actively seeking to solidify its grip on power. The coalition is leveraging the combined influence of Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi. The political narrative has been shaped by the NDA and seems to be leaning in their favor after ‘Operation Sindoor’. The NDA is skillfully constructing a framework that includes caste dynamics, nationalism, and Hindutva. The question is whether the duo of Tejaswi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi can successfully navigate and challenge the NDA’s strategic political approach.
CM Nitish and PM Modi’s partnership has solidified the alliance and focused on a strategic caste-based approach. The Indian Army’s ‘Operation Sindoor’ in response to the ‘Pahalgam attack’ has created a favorable environment for the NDA. The Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census has taken a key issue away from the opposition. The BJP plans to leverage these very issues, and without countering this strategy, it will be difficult for the India alliance to break through and change the political landscape.
‘Operation Sindoor’: An NDA Political Weapon. Bihar is set to hold its first assembly elections following ‘Operation Sindoor’. Following the Pahalgam attack, PM Modi had vowed from Bihar to eliminate the terrorists. The Indian Army successfully destroyed terrorist hideouts in Pakistan through Operation Sindoor. The BJP and its allies are attributing the success to PM Modi, creating a narrative that boosts their image. This is how the NDA has established nationalism as a key political agenda in Bihar.
Strong anti-Pakistan sentiments already exist in Bihar. The BJP anticipates that ‘Operation Sindoor’ will have a positive effect, similar to the air and surgical strikes. PM Modi’s frequent references to Operation Sindoor in Bihar rallies are swaying the political climate in favor of the NDA. Tejaswi and Rahul Gandhi will need to find a counter to the NDA’s nationalistic stance.
NDA’s Robust Caste Equations in Bihar. The NDA coalition in Bihar includes the BJP, JDU, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Jitanram Manjhi’s HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha’s party. JDU and BJP have made efforts to strengthen caste equations. The BJP’s core voter base is composed of Rajputs, Brahmins, Bhumihars, Kayasthas, and Vaishyas. The party has also made inroads into OBC and Dalit votes. Nitish Kumar’s JDU relies on the Kurmi and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) vote bank. Manjhi has a strong base among the Musahars, while Chirag Paswan holds influence in the Dusadh community among the Dalits. Upendra Kushwaha’s political success depends on the Koiri votes.
The NDA has formulated a plan to contest the Bihar elections, focusing on a strong caste equation of upper castes, Kurmis, EBCs, Koiris, and Dalits. The NDA aims to secure around 65% of the votes in Bihar. For Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav, gaining power in Bihar will be challenging without disrupting the NDA’s caste-based strategy.
NDA’s Caste Census Strategy. Bihar’s politics largely revolves around caste dynamics. OBCs make up 65% of the population, and Dalits constitute 17%. Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav were strategizing to challenge the Modi government on the caste census issue. However, the Modi government has neutralized one of the key points of the India alliance by deciding to include a caste census with the upcoming census.
The NDA possesses a more robust caste-based strategy than the India alliance. The recent announcement by the Modi government regarding the caste census is expected to benefit the NDA. Nitish Kumar had already conducted a caste survey in Bihar, and the Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census will be significant in the elections. Tejaswi and Rahul will have to identify new issues to counter the NDA’s strategy.
Leveraging the Names and Work of Modi-Nitish. The NDA plans to campaign in the Bihar assembly elections based on the work and reputations of PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar. They have announced that Nitish Kumar will be the NDA’s Chief Minister candidate in 2025. The election strategy focuses on CM Nitish Kumar’s leadership and the initiatives of his government. PM Modi is considered the most popular face of the NDA. The NDA constituent parties have all decided to contest the Bihar elections based on PM Modi’s name and accomplishments.
Since the Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi has been particularly focused on Bihar. By visiting Bihar frequently, PM Modi is focused on both delivering development and shaping the political environment. The opposition’s response to the Modi-Nitish partnership is the Rahul-Tejaswi duo. The outcome of the Bihar elections will reveal which combination will resonate most with the voters.
BJP’s Push to Establish the Hindutva Agenda. Along with nationalism and a strong caste equation, the BJP in Bihar is working to strengthen its Hindutva agenda. The opposition faces a challenge in countering the BJP’s Hindutva approach. The BJP has deployed Union Minister Giriraj Singh, who is known for his strong Hindutva stance, to mobilize BJP workers and engage with the majority voters. He also organized a Sanatan Yatra to unite Hindu votes.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has announced the construction of a Mata Sita temple in Bihar, similar to the Ram temple. The BJP’s strategy is to consolidate Hindu votes across the castes through Hindutva, given the prominent role of caste-based politics in Bihar. The BJP is well-prepared for the Bihar elections, confident in its strategy and hoping to secure another term under Nitish Kumar. The BJP is considering all aspects, including caste dynamics, sympathy votes, and the impact of Operation Sindoor. The party is determined to leave no stone unturned to ensure electoral success.