The Bihar assembly elections are distinctly shaped by the pervasive influence of caste equations in every constituency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed confidence in an NDA victory, forecasting historically low results for the RJD and Congress. He criticized Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, referring to them as ‘princes seeking bail’ and accusing them of misleading the public with false promises and denigrating women observing Chhath Puja.
In a significant campaign move, Rabri Devi, former Chief Minister and wife of Lalu Prasad, rallied voters in Raghopur for her son, Tejashwi Yadav. The RJD camp has not been without its internal turmoil, with Tej Pratap Yadav reportedly being shunned by his own supporters. The election period has also seen unfortunate incidents of violence, including an attack on a candidate supported by Jitanram Manjhi and the fatal shooting of a Jan Suraaj Party worker in Mokama.
Tejashwi Yadav faces considerable challenges in garnering support for his allies. In Darbhanga district’s Gaura Bauram, he had to persuade voters to back Santosh Sahni, brother of Deputy CM Mukesh Sahni, over local RJD leader Afzal Khan. Tejashwi explained that alliance necessities required RJD supporters to vote for Sahni, promising Khan respect post-election.
This tightrope walk highlights Tejashwi’s delicate balancing act: he must avoid antagonizing Muslim voters by criticizing Khan, while also retaining the support of the Mallah community by not appearing indifferent. His chosen strategy is a middle path.
The RJD has expelled a substantial number of rebel candidates, with the Congress also experiencing similar defections. This internal strife, leading to ‘friendly contests’ in numerous seats, provides fertile ground for comparisons like PM Modi’s ‘oil and water’ analogy for the grand alliance.
Despite joint appearances, Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi adopt distinct campaign narratives. Tejashwi largely omits criticism of corporate figures like Adani and Ambani, avoids direct attacks on PM Modi, and does not engage with Rahul’s ‘vote chori’ theme. He also remained silent on Rahul’s controversial remarks about Chhath Puja.
Tejashwi’s strategy involves positioning Amit Shah as an ‘outsider’ and rallying voters around Bihari identity. His rallies consistently draw large, enthusiastic crowds, underscoring his role as the central campaigner for the Mahagathbandhan. The recent shooting incident in Mokama, which Tejashwi contrasted with the PM’s focus on older ‘jungle raj’ issues, underscores the persistent presence of fear and violence in Bihar’s electoral process, though diminished from past decades.
The enduring influence of ‘bahubalis’ (strongmen) persists, though their direct participation has waned, with many now fielding family members. Caste remains the primary determinant in most constituencies, while the Seemanchal region exhibits a religious divide. Nitish Kumar’s health and Tejashwi’s legacy, impacted by corruption and ‘jungle raj’ allegations, are key campaign issues. The emergence of Prashant Kishor and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi further complicates predictions. Current intelligence suggests the Nitish-Modi alliance has a slight advantage.