Bihar is on the cusp of a new political chapter as exit polls for the 2025 assembly elections are out, signaling a probable victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Projections from prominent agencies like Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya suggest the NDA holds an edge in the 243-seat assembly, although the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to put up a strong fight.
Axis My India’s forecast places the NDA’s seat tally between 121 and 141, while the MGB is projected to win 98 to 118 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is anticipated to secure up to two seats. Meanwhile, Today’s Chanakya offers a more optimistic outlook for the NDA, predicting 160 seats for the alliance, 77 seats for the MGB, and 6 seats for ‘Others’.
Across multiple exit polls conducted on November 11, a general consensus points towards the NDA winning approximately 147 seats, with the MGB likely to achieve around 90 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is expected to claim one seat, and minor parties might collectively win about five seats. The official election results are scheduled to be announced on November 14.
Pollsters caution that the election outcome is far from certain. Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India described the election as ‘a close election’, highlighting the potential influence of the Jan Suraaj Party and its estimated 4% vote share. He indicated that a substantial portion of Kishor’s votes might have been diverted from traditional NDA supporters, potentially altering seat allocations.
Experts believe that new political forces can sometimes be underrepresented in pre-election surveys. If the Jan Suraaj Party’s actual support exceeds 8-10%, the final results could see significant variations.
Recalling the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls had broadly predicted a victory for Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), forecasting significant setbacks for the NDA. However, the final tally saw the NDA securing 125 seats, just above the majority threshold of 122, with the MGB obtaining 110 seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, followed closely by the BJP with 74.
A significant highlight of this election is the unprecedented participation of women voters, who outnumbered men for the first time in Bihar’s electoral history. The overall voter turnout was 66.91%. Data from the Election Commission shows that 71.6% of women voted, a remarkable 9-percentage-point difference compared to the 62.8% male voter turnout. This surge in female voter engagement is seen as a potential game-changer that could influence the final seat count as Bihar awaits the official declaration of results.