As the 2025 Bihar elections approach, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is making an uncharacteristically extensive campaign effort in Nalanda, his traditional stronghold. The normally routine visits have escalated into comprehensive roadshows and rallies spanning all seven assembly constituencies within the district. At 74, Kumar appears determined to reinforce his political standing in a region that has long been synonymous with his electoral success.
The underlying cause for this concentrated campaign effort is a discernible trend of declining electoral performance. Election Commission data indicates a significant reduction in the winning margins for the JD (U) in Nalanda over the last four assembly elections. What was once a commanding average margin of 21.17 percent in 2005 has narrowed to just 9.06 percent by 2020, signaling a weakening of the party’s once-unassailable vote share.
Conversations with Nalanda residents reveal a mixed perception of the Chief Minister’s current standing. Some locals feel that the connection between the public and their representatives has weakened, and the initial fervor surrounding Kumar’s leadership has diminished. Others maintain that Kumar’s tenure has brought substantial development and stability, particularly benefiting women, and that he remains a formidable political force.
Examining the election results over two decades, the erosion of margins is stark. From a peak of 21.17 percent in 2005, the average JD (U) margin in Nalanda dipped to 15.88 percent in 2010, then to 7.64 percent in 2015, and slightly rebounded to over 9 percent in 2020. This trend extends to national elections, with the Lok Sabha seat in Nalanda showing a 10 percentage point decrease in the JD (U)’s victory margin between 2019 and 2024.
The upcoming 2025 assembly elections will see the JD (U) vie for six Nalanda seats, with the BJP contesting one. Key contests include Asthawan, Bihar Sharif, Rajgir, and Islampur, where established leaders and new challengers are set for a close fight. The BJP’s strong presence in Bihar Sharif highlights the evolving dynamics within the NDA alliance.
While the JD (U) secured five out of seven seats in 2020, the shrinking victory margins are a cause for concern for Nitish Kumar. His intensive focus on Nalanda underscores its importance as a crucial testing ground for his enduring political influence as voters prepare to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections.