Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to electrify the campaign trail for the upcoming Bihar elections, with his first rallies scheduled for October 24 in Samastipur and Begusarai. These initial appearances are seen as critical indicators of the NDA’s prospects and a test of PM Modi’s enduring popularity in the state.
The BJP is banking on PM Modi’s ability to draw crowds and influence voter turnout, a tactic employed in previous elections. His participation in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections saw him address 12 rallies, contributing to the NDA’s strong performance. The alliance that year included the JD(U), VIP, and HAM alongside the BJP.
Analysis of the 2020 polls shows that the NDA secured a 61 percent strike rate in the constituencies covered by PM Modi’s 12 rallies. This demonstrates a direct correlation between his campaign events and electoral success for the alliance. However, the impact varied significantly by region.
While certain districts like Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, and the Champaran regions saw a high success rate (72% in these areas), others like Sasaram and Patna reported losses for the NDA. Similarly, areas like Chhapra and Samastipur presented a mixed picture. The strong performance in Darbhanga, Araria, and Saharsa, with an 85 percent strike rate in those districts, further highlights the uneven distribution of his campaign’s effectiveness.
Recalling the 2015 Bihar elections, where PM Modi campaigned extensively but the NDA faced a significant defeat, provides a stark contrast. This occurred when Nitish Kumar was part of the opposition alliance. Despite 26 rallies covering 191 seats, the NDA managed only 52 wins.
The upcoming campaign will heavily feature PM Modi, with a confirmed schedule spanning six days across the state. The pairing of Modi with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is considered pivotal, drawing parallels to their successful 2020 campaign after their 2015 rivalry led to defeat.
Drawing lessons from national election outcomes, the BJP is adopting a more calibrated approach to PM Modi’s campaign appearances, focusing on regions where his presence is most impactful. As Bihar gears up for another election cycle, the effectiveness of the ‘Modi-Nitish’ formula remains the central focus, with all eyes on whether it can translate into votes.