Bihar’s political landscape is abuzz with speculation surrounding the chief ministership, with results due on November 14. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement regarding the legislative party’s decision post-election has fueled rumors of the BJP potentially asserting its claim over the CM post if the NDA wins. However, political observers believe this move would be challenging for the BJP, given the intricate political equations in the state.
The upcoming Bihar assembly elections feature a significant number of direct contests, particularly between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD. The JD(U) is participating in 101 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is set to contest 96. A striking 59 of these are direct electoral battles between the JD(U) and RJD, increasing to 71 when considering the Left parties. These specific constituencies are vital as they are less susceptible to BJP’s sway, reflecting a long-standing political strategy in Bihar aimed at mitigating BJP’s influence.
Looking back at the 2020 Bihar elections, the RJD achieved a commendable strike rate of 67.6% against the JD(U) in these 71 seats, winning 48 out of 75 contested constituencies. The Mahagathbandhan fell just 12 seats short of a majority. The JD(U)’s performance in these direct contests was weaker, securing only 21 seats. A key factor in the JD(U)’s performance was the independent campaigning by Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha, which led to losses on 13 seats. Their current alliance with the NDA is expected to alter these outcomes.
The strategic inclusion of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha within the NDA framework is poised to consolidate crucial Dalit and Koeri vote banks, potentially leading to a stronger showing for the JD(U). In the previous election, Chirag Paswan’s party, running separately, cost the NDA 42 seats, predominantly affecting the JD(U). Similarly, Upendra Kushwaha’s independent stance resulted in JD(U) losing five seats. Their current alliance could help the JD(U) reclaim these lost grounds.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) is set to contest 29 seats, some of which were lost by the NDA in 2020. Notably, 13 of these constituencies have historically eluded the NDA for over a decade. Despite these electoral calculations, the prevailing sentiment among analysts is that the BJP faces significant hurdles in attempting to replace Nitish Kumar. Any such move could potentially push Nitish Kumar towards an alliance with the RJD, reshaping Bihar’s political future.