The arrival of actor Vijay in Tamil Nadu politics has been met with enthusiastic responses from crowds, a common phenomenon in a state where cinema and politics often intertwine. His second phase of campaigning, commencing in Nagercoil, saw him directly challenge Chief Minister MK Stalin, raising questions about foreign investments.
Vijay’s popularity among his supporters suggests a promising political future, but analysts offer a more nuanced assessment. Dr. Sumanth C Raman suggests that Vijay might take away some of the DMK’s secular votes, but the party’s current standing gives them a comfortable margin. It’s widely believed that Vijay will mostly affect the AIADMK’s vote share by dividing the anti-DMK votes.
This vote split may prove advantageous to the DMK. Though Stalin has downplayed Vijay’s political ideology and lack of public service experience, the ruling party is not overly concerned. Prof. Ramu Manivannan, from Madras University, shares the view that it is difficult for film stars to succeed in politics.
Historical examples of Tamil Nadu leaders like MG Ramachandran and M. Karunanidhi show that success requires dedication. Despite Rajinikanth’s popularity, he withdrew from politics. Vijay is perceived to be targeting the DMK, aiming at those who would not vote for the DMK.
This will likely result in a fragmentation of the opposition vote, potentially benefiting the DMK. The DMK will be pleased if the anti-incumbency effect is split and worried if Vijay gains the minority votes. Considering the BJP is behind the UPA led by the DMK, Vijay’s role in splitting the vote could favor the ruling party. The DMK’s success in previous elections indicates a similar pattern.
The DMK’s focus on Tamil identity and criticisms against the Centre and BJP have proven effective. With a solid campaign strategy and media backing, the DMK appears prepared, but the next eight months of campaigning will be important, with the DMK equipped for the new challenge from Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).