With the upcoming Bihar elections still some time away, the political climate is heating up with parties employing various pressure tactics. This suggests that the Mahagathbandhan, like in the past, could potentially fracture before the elections. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) has staked a claim to contest 60 seats. Considering the RJD’s reluctance to allocate a large number of seats even to its key ally, the Congress, it remains doubtful whether a regional party like VIP would be accommodated.
Both the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA are deep in discussions regarding seat sharing. Smaller parties within the alliances are vying for a larger share of seats. In 2020, the VIP, led by Mukesh Sahani, was part of the Mahagathbandhan, but seat-sharing negotiations faltered. The success of current negotiations with Sahani will be crucial, given his increased demands.
Pressure tactics regarding seat sharing are evident. The founder of VIP, Mukesh Sahani, announced on social media his party’s intent to contest 60 seats in the 2025 elections. He further stated that their allies would contest the remaining seats. This announcement raises questions regarding the feasibility of VIP’s plan. As VIP is an ally of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, the possibility of the RJD offering 60 seats to a regional party, especially considering the RJD’s stance towards allocating seats to Congress, remains uncertain.
Bihar has 243 assembly seats. VIP’s unilateral declaration to contest 60 seats and the concurrent demand for the Deputy Chief Minister to be from the Mallah community may signal Sahani’s intention to stake a claim for the Deputy CM position.
Several other parties within the alliances are also making their demands. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) aims to contest at least 12 seats in Bihar. The Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party has also announced its intention to contest the elections. The Left parties also wish to increase their share of seats; they had 16 victories in 2020 and are now seeking over 40 seats. The CPI-ML won 12 seats in the previous election.
The RJD also plans to contest a large number of seats, and Congress is also vying for a considerable share. The RJD plans to contest 140-145 seats, similar to 2020 when it won 75 out of 144. The Congress wishes to contest around 70 seats, while the RJD is only considering allocating 50-55 seats, indicating the strain in alliance dynamics.
During the 2020 elections, the Mahagathbandhan saw a mixed performance. While RJD won 75 out of 144 seats, Congress managed to win 19 out of 70. The Left parties collectively won 16 seats. Earlier seat allocation issues had caused Mukesh Sahani’s party to split with the Mahagathbandhan. The party had then sought 25 seats and the Deputy Chief Minister’s position.
The upcoming 2025 elections could be a different ball game. Sahani has increased his demands from the previous election cycle. He has now staked a claim for 60 seats and has announced it on social media. It’s uncertain how successful these pressure tactics will be. The Mahagathbandhan faces significant challenges in reaching a consensus on seat sharing.